Volodymyr Kolot: Domestic Fertilizer Production Must Become the Foundation of Ukraine’s Agricultural Resilience

The global nitrogen fertilizer market has demonstrated its ability to recover rapidly from major geopolitical disruptions. For Ukraine, however, the stabilization of global fertilizer prices does not eliminate the key risk: the agricultural sector’s dependence on imports.
In his latest column for AgroPortal.ua, Agro Gas Trading partner Volodymyr Kolot explains why the end of the global fertilizer market crisis does not mean that Ukraine’s challenges have been resolved. He argues that restoring domestic ammonia and nitrogen fertilizer production must become one of the country’s strategic priorities.
Following the outbreak of conflict in the Middle East and the disruption of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz in spring 2026, market participants anticipated a severe shortage of nitrogen fertilizers. Urea prices rose above $720 per tonne but had returned to their pre-crisis level of approximately $440 per tonne by the end of May 2026.
The market’s stabilization was supported by expectations of renewed Chinese exports, increased production in North African countries, and the response of North American producers. As a result, the global market was able to swiftly redirect trade flows and mitigate the risk of physical shortages.
At the same time, Ukraine’s agricultural sector remains highly vulnerable to external shocks. A significant share of domestic fertilizer demand is met through imports, meaning that fluctuations in global prices, logistics, and product availability directly affect agricultural production costs in Ukraine.

According to Volodymyr Kolot, the key takeaway for Ukraine should be the need for a gradual transition from critical import dependence towards the development of its own production capacity.
This does not mean withdrawing from the global market. It means restoring domestic ammonia and nitrogen fertilizer production that can mitigate the impact of external crises and provide Ukrainian farmers with essential resources.

The full column is available on AgroPortal at the link:  https://agroportal.ua/blogs/kriza-na-svitovomu-rinku-dobriv-podolana-yaki-visnovki-maye-zrobiti-ukrajina