AGROCHEMPROM OF UKRAINE: A TEMPORARY CIRCULATION OR CONSEQUENTLY PROTECTED?
The agro-industrial complex of Ukraine is a giant who could raise the country on the highest shabbits of economic development. But today, not all is so clear and making any predictions difficult.
Sowing is provided and the picture is supposedly oil, but to be more careful. On the one hand, according to data from regions of Ukraine as of March 24, 2017, agricultural enterprises were provided with fertilizers for 100% for spring-field operations this season., Including nitrogen - by 102%. Source of SO "Institute of Soil Conservation of Ukraine" http://www.iogu.gov.ua/blog/pres-centr/novini/operatyvna-informatsiya-schodo-zabezpechenosti-mineralnymy-dobryvamy-pid-vesnyano-litni-polovi-roboty-stanom-na-24-03-2017/
On the other hand, it was March 2017 that marked the crisis in the domestic fertilizer market. Previously, it would be difficult to imagine, but just at the height of spring-field work the plants of one of the largest producers of nitrogen fertilizers in Ukraine, the Ostchem group, stopped. Hence - short supply of fertilizers to already paid contracts to farmers and the expansion of Russian imports. And this is just the tip of the iceberg of the consequences for the agroindustrial complex of Ukraine.
What exactly, does anyone directly thicken the paint in such a seemingly transparent issue for the agrarian country?
First of all, experts in the agrochemical market question the estimates of fertility. So, the head of the Association "Agrochemists of Ukraine", director of marketing and commerce agrochemical company GROSSDORF Sergey Ruban said that the error here is at least 15%.
Leonid Kozachenko, the People's Deputy of Ukraine, president of the Ukrainian Agrarian Confederation (UAC), also believes that the volume of mineral fertilizers currently in Ukraine on logistic warehouses closes the actual needs of agrarians by about 88%.
«"The fact that already exists from the farmers in the warehouses - is not more than 75% of their needs for a complex of spring field work. That is, in fact, there is a shortage of mineral fertilizers. Why the deficit was formed? Because part of the fertilizer was bought by prepayment from Ostchem, but it did not fulfill its obligations. And now the farmers were in a difficult situation - they were left without fertilizers, but without money, to turn to other suppliers, "says Leonid Kozachenko.
Representative Ostchem explained at one of the meetings in the Ministry of Economy of Ukraine that their companies had been stopped by the actions of the Ukrainian government.
"The representative of Ostchem stated that the enterprises were stopped because the government of Ukraine does not comply with the court decision, which is obliged to pay compensation through losses incurred by the company. According to him, without these funds, Ostchem was forced to take money from farmers who made a prepayment, and to pay off wage arrears to their employees and part of the debt to external creditors ", - the UAC president shared the data.
What is the possible development of events? First of all, the question of the survival of small farmers and small agricultural companies, as it will open a large space for various bank manipulations. The next and decisive issue is the entire domestic agrochemical market - importers will not wait for the better times for the agro-industrial complex of Ukraine.
It is necessary to clearly understand the sequence of actions and the situation in the domestic agrochemical market, which should receive a certain share of imported fertilizers. Thus, in the agrochemical industry of Ukraine, the segment of nitrogen fertilizers is well developed. Analysts estimate this potential at 120-150% of current demand. But the potential of Ukraine to provide phosphate fertilizers of its own production is not higher than 30-40% of the volume of domestic farmers required. For potash fertilizers Ukraine has no alternative but import. The only potash mines in Ukraine in Stebnyk - in a state of emergency and the opening of such production will cost a potential investor almost $ 1 billion.
It would seem that the Ukrainian government understands and makes calculations and steps in support of the domestic agro-chemical industry. But we do not just stay in place, on the contrary - we destroy what we have left. The national gas company in the most responsible agrosector of the period freely "crushes" on the domestic producer of agrochemicals. Stop the last chemical giants. With all this there is wide scope for increasing the supply of fertilizers from the country of aggressor under favorable conditions of dumping.